Lic. Alberto González Káram
• Cuantiosos ingresos petroleros de 1 billón 926 mil 205.0 millones de pesos que equivalen a 2 mil 186.4 millones de pesos diarios en actual administración pública federal
• Cuantificación de la valoración económica de los excedentes de ingresos petroleros por 336 mil 387.92 millones de pesos en la tercera decena del mes de junio del 2021
La economía mexicanas tenía una gran dependencia de las actividades petroleras que se reflejaban en las finanzas públicas al alcanzar un máximo nivel del 42.01 por ciento en 2008, mientras que en la actual administración pública federal los ingresos presupuestarios del sector público ascendieron a un cuantioso monto de 13 billones 184 mil 012.8 millones de pesos que equivalen a una captación promedio de 14 mil 964.8 millones de pesos diarios y los ingresos petroleros fueron de 1 billón 926 mil 205.0 millones de pesos con un promedio de 2 mil 186.4 millones de pesos diarios y una participación del 14.61 por ciento en el período comprendido del 1º. de diciembre del 2018 al 30 de abril de 2021.
Los ingresos federales autorizados ascienden a 6 billones 295 mil 736.2 millones de pesos y los ingresos petroleros de 593 mil 669.4 millones de pesos con una mínima participación del 9.43 por ciento en el presente ejercicio fiscal del 2021.
Ingresos Presupuestarios del Sector Público a Precios Corrientes
Diciembre 2018-Diciembre 2021
Años Ingresos Federales Ingresos Petroleros Participación
2018 458,980.4 93,046.0 20.27
2019 5,384,984.3 955,697.6 17.77
2020 5,339,943.0 605,842.7 11.35
2021 a/ 6,295,736.2 593,669.4 9.43
a/ Ley de Ingresos de la Federación 2021
Fuente de Información: “Ingresos Presupuestarios Federales y Petroleros de Diciembre del 2018 a Diciembre de 2021”, Lic. Alberto González Káram, Presidente de la Comisión Binacional de Asuntos Fronterizos del Colegio Nacional de Economistas, A.C. (CNE) y Vicepresidente del Colegio de Economistas del Noreste de México, A.C. (CENEMAC), Investigación Especial, Junio del 2021.
En el primer cuatrimestre del presente año, se registran ingreso petroleros por 271 mil 602.2 millones de pesos que representan el 45.75 por ciento de la meta anual, superando 113 mil 943.5 millones de pesos con crecimiento de dos dígitos 64.5 por ciento con respecto al mismo período del año pasado, de los cuales 95.2 por ciento son ingresos propios de la empresa productiva del estado de Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) que crecieron tres dígitos 169.2 por ciento, mientras que los ingresos de las transferencias del Fondo Mexicano del Petróleo para la Estabilización y el Desarrollo, y el Impuesto Sobre la Renta (ISR) de contratistas y asignatarios por explotación de hidrocarburos que contribuyen con el 4.8 por ciento.
El petróleo ha sido un pilar sólido de la economía mexicana desde la expropiación el 18 de marzo de 1938, registrando a la fecha incrementos significativos en los precios internacionales de exportación que generan mayores ingresos de la renta petrolera, convirtiéndose la actual política petrolera en un importante instrumento para ampliar la inversión, producción, empleo e ingresos y mejorar la balanza comercial petrolera.
Los Criterios de Política Económica tiene previsto un precio internacional promedio del petróleo de 42.10 dólares por barril y se ubica durante la tercera decena del mes de junio del presente año en niveles de 67.55 dólares por barril que superan 25.45 dólares la meta anual y representan un crecimiento de dos dígitos 60.45 por ciento, resultando mayores ingresos por la renta petroleros y en los ingresos del gobierno federal que contribuyen con la estabilidad macroeconómica del país, debido a que los ascenso de los precios del petróleo benefician el nivel del ingreso y consecuentemente el gasto público del gobierno federal, los gobiernos estatales y las participaciones a los municipios.
Los resultados cuantitativos del análisis de sensibilidad económica muestran que de una meta de ingresos petroleros diarios de exportación de 36 millones 627.0 millones de dólares, se generan actualmente 58 millones 768.5 millones de dólares que equivalen a un excedente en la captación de divisas por 22 millones 141.5 millones de dólares cada 24 horas y representan un incremento de dos dígitos 60.45 por ciento diariamente.
Los altos niveles de precios petroleros favorecerán los ingresos públicos federales en el presente y tendrá un efecto directo anticíclico que permitirá a la actuad administración pública federal mantener un alto nivel de gasto superior al contar con mayor renta petrolera.
En los Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2021, se tiene contemplado un precio de 42.1 dólares por barril de la mezcla mexicana del Petróleo Itsmo, Maya y Olmeca, con una plataforma de producción crudo total 1.857 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y la plataforma de exportación de crudo de 870 mil barriles diarios de petróleo, mientras que el gas natural se espera un precio promedio de 2.7 dólares/ MMBtu.
Los crecientes incrementos de los precios internacionales del petróleo a niveles de 67.55 dólares por barril, exigen y obligan a la obtención de resultados cualitativos y cuantitativos del análisis de sensibilidad económica sobre sus impactos positivos en el aumento de los ingresos federales y gastos públicos, mediante el seguimiento diario y valoración de las siguientes cinco variables importantes:
1. Medio punto real de crecimiento económico representa 15 mil 411.0 millones de pesos y equivale al 0.06 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) al incrementarse los ingresos públicos tributarios para lograr una mayor recaudación de los siguientes: Impuesto Sobre la Renta (ISR), Impuesto Especial sobre Producción y Servicios (IEPS), Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA), Impuesto al Comercio Exterior (ICE) y otros;
2. El valor adicional de un dólar en el precio del petróleo representa 13 mil 217.6 millones de pesos y equivale al 0.05 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) proveniente del incremento de los ingresos por exportaciones de petróleo más el aumento de los gastos por importación de hidrocarburos por parte de la empresa productiva del estado de Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX);
3. La apreciación de 10 centavos en el tipo de cambio promedio representa una disminución de -3,518.9 millones de pesos y equivale a -0.01 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) producto de la apreciación del peso frente al dólar que reducirán los ingresos petroleros debido a que una proporción elevada de los mismos está asociada a las exportaciones de crudo netas de importaciones de hidrocarburos, lo cual contribuye en reducción del costo por el servicio de la deuda denominada en moneda extranjera por 437.6 millones de pesos en los ingresos petroleros;
4. El incrementar 50 mil barriles diarios de extracción de petróleo crudo representan aumentos de los ingresos por 15 mil 120.3 millones de pesos que equivalen al 0.08 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de una mayor plataforma de producción de petróleo que incrementa los ingresos petroleros debido a la mayor venta de petróleo; y
5. La reducción de 100 puntos base en la tasa de interés representan un incremento del gasto no programable del Sector Público de 20 mil 594.0 millones de pesos en el costo financiero y equivale al 0.08 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) al disminuir el pago de intereses de la deuda a tasa variable y los costos de refinanciamiento de la deuda que está por vencer.
Es importante destacar que a la fecha se estima una valoración económica de excedentes de ingresos petroleros por 336 mil 387.92 millones de pesos en la tercera decena del mes de junio del 2021.
El análisis de sensibilidad económica sobre el impacto positivo en las estimaciones de los ingresos y el gasto ante posibles incrementos de los precios del petróleo, será recomendable aplicar en las principales variables macroeconómicas del 1º. de julio al 31 de diciembre del ejercicio fiscal 2021.
Con el propósito de evitar los errores cometidos en el pasado y la excesiva corrupción plenamente demostrada y comprobada en el presente, se recomienda la creación de un Fondo Mexicano de Ahorro Petrolero para las Generaciones Futuras, a fin de hacer frente a las elasticidades en los precios internacionales del petróleos y la oferta y demanda del mercado petrolero mundial, así como la urgente necesidad de ahorrar parte de los excedentes de los ingresos petroleros para las generaciones futuras, así como evitar la plena monetización de los ingresos extraordinarios cuando hay bonanzas de precios o de cantidades y menguar los efectos de la abundancia de dólares sobre los sectores transables.
El Fondo Mexicano de Ahorro Petrolero para las Generaciones Futuras se deberá orientar fundamentalmente a mantener el equilibrio entre el mercado de los factores de producción y el mercado de los bienes y servicios en beneficio de la mayoría de la población de nuestro país y contará con su propio código de buenas prácticas de transparencia fiscal.
Con la creación del Fondo Mexicano de Ahorro Petrolero para las Generaciones Futuras se pondrá fin con la gran y grave problemática que propiciaba la alta dependencia de los ingresos petroleros desde el siglo pasado y deberá formar parte de las buenas prácticas nacionales y estrategias de política fiscal efectivas y eficientes al minimizar los altos costos de las variaciones del gasto público a lo largo del tiempo y desvincularlo de la alta elasticidad de los ingresos del petróleo, así como maximizar la riqueza de la renta petrolera con activos financieros que permitan crear las condiciones para convertir un ingreso temporal en permanente que beneficie a la mayoría de población actual y las generaciones futuras, logrando por primera vez en la historia la autosuficiencia energética y soberanía de los hidrocarburos.
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