MERCADO EXTERNO RENTABLE
Lic. Alberto González Káram
• Valor económico de comercio exterior por 2 billones 015 mil 506.33 millones de dólares equivalente a 2 mil 368.39 millones de dólares diarios en presente administración federal
• Mayor saldo superavitario en la historia del comercio exterior por 84 mil 161.79 millones de dólares en balanza comercial no petrolera reposicionan potencia mundial de México
La rentabilidad del mercado de comercio exterior se demuestra y comprueba plenamente al obtener un valor económico que ascendió a 2 billones 015 mil 506.33 millones de dólares equivalente a 2 mil 368.39 millones de dólares diarios en la presente administración pública federal, resultando el mayor saldo superavitario acumulado en la historia por 84 mil 161.79 millones de dólares en la balanza comercial no petrolera, producto del efecto multiplicador de cada 6.68 pesos del Impuesto General de Importaciones (IGI) se generaron 93.32 pesos de impuestos y derechos tributarios federales, lo cual es contrario al cuantioso déficit comercial no petrolero en la administración de Peña-Nieto, mismas que ascendieron a un récord histórico de pérdida económica por -247 mil 318.08 millones de dólares en el período 2012-2018.
Es importante destacar el incremento porcentual anual de dos dígitos en las exportaciones totales mexicanas del 12.2, petroleras de 70.8, no petroleras 10.2, agropecuarias 5.0, extractivas 38.0, manufactureras 9.9 y 18.7 en las no automotrices.
El valor económico de 1 billón 027 mil 868.52 millones de dólares de las exportaciones mexicanas se desglosa en la Industria Manufacturera, Maquiladora, Automotriz y de Servicios de Exportación por 916 mil 458.7 millones de dólares que concentra el 89.16 por ciento del mercado del comercio exterior.
La venta de petróleo crudo con un valor de exportaciones de 43 mil 759.0 millones de dólares, la reintegración de las cadenas de suministros de las actividades agropecuarias con valor económico de las exportaciones por 43 mil 639.9 millones de dólares, mientras que la minería, petroquímica y las empresas manufactureras y extractivas no petroleras participan con valor económico de las exportaciones por 24 mil 010.9 millones de dólares.
Valor Económico de las Exportaciones Mexicanas
1º. de Diciembre del 2018 al 31 de Marzo del 2021
(millones de dólares)
Lugar Actividades Económicas Valor Económico
1º. Manufactura, Maquiladora y Automotriz 916,458.7
2º. Petróleo Crudo 43,759.0
3º. Agropecuarias 43,639.9
4º. Minería y petroquímica 24,010.9
T o t a l 1´027,868.5
Fuente de Información: “Valor Económico de las Exportaciones Mexicanas”, 1º. de Diciembre del 2018 al 31 de Marzo del 2021, Lic. Alberto González Káram, Investigación Especial, Abril del 2021.
Las estrategias que lograron incrementar la eficiencia y eficacia del comercio exterior al obtener una calificación aprobatoria ininterrumpidamente durante 28 meses de la actual administración pública federal, son las siguientes:
La primera estrategia consistió en la aplicación del Programa de la Zona Libre de la Frontera Norte, al reducir del 16 al 8 por ciento el Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA) y del 30 al 20 por ciento el Impuesto Sobre la Renta (ISR), la homologación de precios y tarifas de gasolinas, diésel y tarifas eléctricas, duplicar salario mínimo, autorizar los Planes de Desarrollo y establecimiento de la Zona Libre que comprende 43 Municipios en 6 Estados Fronterizos colindantes con Estados Unidos de América, misma que será ampliada por 4 años más para el período comprendido del pasado 1º. de enero del 2021 hasta el 31 de diciembre del 2024.
En la segunda estrategia para obtener el mayor saldo superavitario acumulado en la historia del comercio exterior por 84 mil 161.79 millones de dólares en la balanza comercial no petrolera, consistió en ampliar la base de importadores y exportadores de 106 mil 541 contribuyentes a 146 mil 966 activos al cierre del 31 de diciembre del 2020, logrando mejorar la confianza en la actual administración pública federal de 40 mil 425 nuevos contribuyentes a la base del padrón nacional con una ampliación de dos dígitos 37.94 por ciento.
La tercera estrategia consistió en el fortalecimiento de la Dirección General de Aduanas (DGA) que alcanzó una recaudación por 129 mil 006.19 millones de pesos de impuestos a las importaciones para contribuir en aumentar la eficiencia y eficacia de la recaudación tributaria federal, resultando el mayor ingreso público tributario en la historia de 11 billones 183 mil 898.7 millones pesos, obteniendo la actual administración pública federal una calificación aprobatoria en eficiencia y eficacia recaudatoria federal al cierre del mes de enero del 2021.
Los 146 mil 966 contribuyentes activos del padrón de importadores y exportadores, realizan sus funciones a través de 814 patentes de Agentes Aduanales que se encuentran distribuidos en las aduanas terrestres, portuarias y aeroportuarias.
En la cuarta estrategia se obtienen los resultados de importaciones totales acumuladas al concentrar 78.37 por ciento con un valor económico de 773 mil 989.98 millones de dólares en bienes intermedios que permitirán incrementar la producción, ensamble y maquila para satisfacer, fortalecer las cadenas de suministro y ampliar el mercado de las exportaciones mundiales en 2021, mientras que 12.56 por ciento son de bienes de consumo en el mercado interno y 9.08 por ciento de bienes de capital.
Los resultados del Tratado Comercial México-Estados Unidos-Canadá (T-MEC) de acuerdo con mis prospectivas de ingresos de la economía Internacional en México 2019-2024, derivadas de la aplicación del Efecto Multiplicador del Comercio Exterior en el Ingreso Público Federal o Teorema Heckscher-Ohlín-Samuelson-Káram (H-O-S-K), permitirán la obtención de los siguientes resultados de ingresos públicos federales con un efecto multiplicador acumulado de 3 billones 042 mil 312.30 millones de pesos al cierre del 2021, 4 billones 056 mil 416.36 millones de pesos en 2022, 5 billones 070 mil 520.45 millones de pesos en 2023 y 6 billones 084 mil 624.54 millones de pesos en 2024, convirtiéndose el comercio exterior en la primera fuente de generación de ingresos federales en la presente administración pública federal y la principal salvación de la economía mexicana.
Los Sectores Industriales Estratégicos que requieren mayores inversiones, ampliar las cadenas de suministro y diversificar su comercio exterior, son principalmente los siguientes: Fabricación de productos farmacéuticos y vacunas; Fabricación de partes para vehículos automotores; Fabricación de equipo de comunicación; Fabricación de equipo no electrónico y material desechable de uso médico, dental y para laboratorio, así como artículos oftálmicos; Fabricación de instrumentos de medición, control, navegación, y equipo médico electrónico; Fabricación de automóviles y camiones; Fabricación de equipo de audio y de video; Fabricación de otros equipos y accesorios eléctricos; Fabricación de accesorios de iluminación; Fabricación de equipo de generación y distribución de energía eléctrica; Fabricación de aparatos eléctricos de uso doméstico; y Fabricación y reproducción de medios magnéticos y ópticos, mismos que representan las áreas de oportunidad para nuevas inversiones nacionales y extranjeras de los establecimientos de la Industria Manufacturera, Maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación.
Las nuevas oportunidades que serán impulsadas por su alta demanda y rentabilidad en el comercio exterior se relacionan con los productos farmacéuticos y vacunas, equipos y dispositivos médicos, sustancias químicas, equipamiento e instrumentos energéticos, productos cosméticos, tecnología de la información y comunicación.
En la actual administración federal se logró reposicionar a México en la Décima Potencia Mundial con relación al valor económico actualizado de las exportaciones por parte de la Organización Mundial de Comercio (OMC), cuya prospectiva continuará ampliándose al convertirse el comercio exterior en la principal fuente de ingresos tributarios directos que se fortalecen con motivo de las múltiples ventajas comparativas, competitivas, estratégicas, geográficas, reapertura de cadenas de suministro y reactivación económica y social que contribuye con el Tratado Comercial México-Estados Unidos-Canadá (T-MEC) al incrementar el volumen y valor de las exportaciones, así como continuar aumentando el saldo superavitario para superar a Reino Unido, Italia y Francia al consolidar el mercado de mayor volumen y valor económico a nivel mundial para el cierre del 31 de diciembre del 2021.
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