Por Pegaso
Empiezan a aparecer las encuestas sobre preferencias electorales de los ciudadanos, no como una guía y luz que los lleve a elegir al mejor hombre o mujer para ocupar tan importante cargo como es la Presidencia Municipal, sino como arma política.
Vi dos encuestas muy recientes. Una, de la empresa Demoscopía, la cual, mediante una muestra de 800 ciudadanos cuestiona por qué candidato votaría, entre el de MORENA Carlos Peña Ortiz, el del PAN Jesús María Moreno Ibarra, el del PRI Benito Sáenz Barella, el del Movimiento Ciudadano Juan Carlos Zertuche Romero y otros.
El resultado fue que el 40% votaría por Carlos Peña Ortiz, el 22.2% por Jesús María Moreno Ibarra, el 5.3% por Benito Sáenz Barella, el 2.6% por Juan Carlos Zertuche Romero, el 3.4$ por otros y el 26.2% aún no decide.
Cuando preguntó las preferencias por partido, el 31.1% prefiere al PAN, el 28.7% prefiere a MORENA, el 9.5% al PRI, el 4.3% al Movimiento Ciudadano, el 4.1% a otros y el 22.3% aún no se decide.
La otra encuesta, la que me causó estupor, es la que publicó el periódico El Mañana, aplicada a 44,639 ciudadanos.
La pregunta fue: ¿Por quién votaría el próximo 6 de junio?
El candidato del PAN, Jesús María Moreno Ibarra salió con el 54% de las preferencias, en tanto que el candidato de MORENA, Carlos Peña Ortiz, obtuvo el 44%, y el chiquitiaje se repartió el 2% restante.
¿A quién creerle, si la diferencia entre uno y otro resultado es abismal?
Se ha dicho durante mucho tiempo, y creo que ya es dogma de fe, que las encuestas solo son fotografías de momento.
Hay quienes dicen, cuando se ven abajo por un pelín en alguna medición, que “caballo que alcanza, gana”.
Hoy por hoy, las encuestas son una poderosa arma política.
Esto ocurre así porque hay empresas que viven de hacer encuestas a modo, siempre y cuando el o los interesados paguen la tarifa requerida.
Se supone que la ley electoral regula todo eso. Pero mientras son peras o manzanas, mientras el INE decide investigar si una casa medidora de opinión pública utilizó métodos científicos para obtener un resultado creíble, el impacto en la población ya ha hecho su trabajo.
Encuestas habrá que darán triunfador a uno u otro candidato, como ha ocurrido en las elecciones desde finales del siglo pasado, y luego aparecerán otras que dicen todo lo contrario.
La población debe saber que se trata de una manipulación y que será el resultado de las urnas el que revele de manera formal cuál de ellos obtuvo el apoyo mayoritario de la población.
Mientras tanto, no hay que creernos todo lo que vemos en las redes sociales.
Resulta difícil a estas alturas y con toda la tecnología aplicada, darnos cuenta cuál de las empresas encuestadoras genera información confiable porque, al parecer, todas están cortadas con la misma tijera y a todas les gusta la lana fácil.
Yo, por lo menos, no puedo distinguir una encuesta a modo y otra que se ha hecho siguiendo criterios científicos e independiente de cualquier interés político.
Tal vez, si tenemos acceso a varias, podríamos comparar sus resultados y las que tengan mayor concordancia entre ellas serán considerarlas válidas; y al resto habría que arrojarlas al bote de la basura.
De momento no puedo conciliar los resultados de Demoscopía y El Mañana. Ignoro si de un día para otro cambiaron drásticamente las condiciones que obligaron al electorado a dar un giro de 180 grados en sus preferencias electorales, así que esperaré una tercera encuesta para darme una idea más precisa.
Y aquí nos quedamos con el refrán estilo Pegaso que dice: “Cuando afirmo que la acémila es cobriza lo sostengo a consecuencia del pelaje que poseo en mi diestra”. (Cuando digo que la mula es parda es porque traigo los pelos en la mano).
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