DESCUBRIMIENTO PETROLERO 2021
Lic. Alberto González Káram
- Pozo exploratorio terrestre Dzimpona-1EXP con prospectiva de 600 millones de barriles de petróleo crudo equivalente en Comalcalco cerca de Refinería Dos Bocas
- Producción petrolera mexicana de 1 millón 712 mil 650 barriles diarios y exportaron 978 mil 891 barriles diarios que representan 57.15 por ciento al cierre de enero 2021
El 18 de marzo del 2021 con motivo de la Conmemoración del 83º. Aniversario de la Expropiación Petrolera por parte del General Lázaro Cárdenas, se dará a conocer el mayor descubrimiento terrestre de la empresa productiva del estado de Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), en el pozo exploratorio terrestre Dzimpona-1EXP ubicado en Comalcalco muy cerca de la nueva Refinería y Puerto de Dos Bocas del Municipio de Paraíso, Tabasco.
Dzimpona-1EXP forma parte geológica del cretácico medio, jurásico superior kimmeridgiano donde se encontró aceite ligero de 40 a 45 grados API, con la prospectiva de 600 millones de barriles de petróleo crudo equivalente que supera al pozo terrestre Ixachi.
La producción petrolera mexicana se ubica en un nivel actual de 1 millón 712 mil 650 barriles diarios de la mezcla mexicana del Itsmo, Maya y Olmeca con un precio promedio diario anual de 42.10 dólares, de los cuales se exportaron 978 mil 891 barriles diarios que representan el 57.15 por ciento de la producción nacional, mismos que se vendieron a un precio promedio de 50.349 dólares por barril, resultado un ingreso excedente y captación de divisas por 8.249 dólares por cada barril de petróleo crudo exportado con un incremento en el margen de utilidad de dos dígitos 19.59 por ciento al cierre del 31 de enero del 2021.
Los resultados cuantitativos del análisis de sensibilidad económica demuestran y comprueban plenamente que de una plataforma real de ingresos petroleros diarios de exportación de 41 millones 211.31 millones de dólares, se generaron 49 millones 286.18 millones de dólares que equivalen a un aumento en la captación de divisas por 8 millones 074.87 millones de dólares cada 24 horas y representan un incremento en el margen de utilidad real de dos dígitos 19.59 por ciento diariamente.
Los incrementos significativos en los precios internacionales de exportación que generan mayores ingresos de la renta petrolera, a los que se suman los incrementos de la producción del pozo terrestre Dzimpona-1EXP con prospectiva de 600 millones de barriles de petróleo crudo, convertirán a la actual política petrolera en un importante instrumento para ampliar la inversión, producción, empleo e ingresos y mejorar la balanza comercial petrolera.
En los Criterios de Política Económica se tiene previsto un precio internacional promedio del petróleo de 42.10 dólares por barril en el presente año y al conmemorar el 83º. Aniversario de la Expropiación Petrolera se ubica en niveles de 64.02 dólares por barril que superan 21.92 dólares la meta anual y representan un crecimiento de dos dígitos 52.06 por ciento, resultando mayores ingresos por la renta petroleros y en los ingresos del gobierno federal que contribuyen con la estabilidad macroeconómica del país, debido a que los ascenso de los precios del petróleo benefician el nivel del ingreso y consecuentemente el gasto público del gobierno federal, los 32 gobiernos estatales y las participaciones federales a los 2 mil 446 municipios del país.
Los altos niveles de precios petroleros favorecerán los ingresos públicos federales en el presente y tendrá un efecto directo anticíclico que permitirá a la actuad administración pública federal mantener un alto nivel de gasto superior al autorizado por la Cámara de Diputados y contar con mayores ingresos de la renta petrolera.
El impacto económico del crecimiento de la producción petrolera nacional con el pozo terrestre Dzimpona-1EXP y los crecientes incrementos de los precios internacionales del petróleo a niveles de 64.02 dólares por barril, exigen y obligan a la obtención de resultados cualitativos y cuantitativos del análisis de sensibilidad económica sobre sus impactos positivos en el aumento de los ingresos federales y gastos públicos, mediante el seguimiento diario y valoración de las siguientes cinco variables importantes:1. Impacto real de crecimiento económico; 2. Valor adicional del mayor precio internacional del petróleo; 3. Apreciación del tipo de cambio; 4. Apreciación del peso respecto a las exportaciones y reducción de la deuda externa; y 5. Reducción de tasa de interés en incremento del gasto no programable del Sector Público, disminución del pago de intereses de la deuda a tasa variable y costos de refinanciamiento de la deuda por vencer.
Es importante destacar la reducción del costo de extracción de 14.06 dólares por barril a 11.15 dólares por barril de la mezcla mexicana del petróleo Itsmo, Maya y Olmeca, con un precio promedio de exportación de petróleo crudo de 64.02 dólares al obtener un margen de utilidad de exportación de 474.17 por ciento que representan 52.87 dólares por cada barril petróleo y con respecto al precio de importación de gasolinas de 50.349 dólares por barril se obtiene un margen de utilidad promedio de refinación del 351.56 por ciento en las seis refinerías que integran el Sistema Nacional de Refinación (SNR) equivalente a 39.19 dólares por cada barril refinado en México en 2021.
Los ingresos presupuestarios del sector público ascendieron a un cuantioso monto de 11 billones 183 mil 907.7 millones de pesos y los ingresos petroleros fueron de 1 billón 654 mil 586.3 millones de pesos con una participación promedio del 14.79 por ciento en el período comprendido del 1º. de diciembre del 2018 al 31 de diciembre de 2020.
En el ejercicio fiscal del 2021, se tiene previsto un ingreso federal autorizado de 6 billones 295 mil 736.2 millones de pesos y los ingresos petroleros en 593 mil 669.4 millones de dólares con una participación del 9.43 por ciento.
Las principales prospectivas derivadas de los resultados cuantitativos y cualitativos de la presente Investigación con motivo del descubrimiento del pozo terrestre Dzimpona-1EXP, consisten en la superación del precio promedio anual de 42.1 dólares por barril diario de la mezcla mexicana del Petróleo Itsmo, Maya y Olmeca, el crecimiento de la plataforma de producción de petróleo crudo de 1 millón 857 mil de barriles diarios de petróleo y el incremento de la plataforma de exportación de crudo de 870 mil barriles diarios de petróleo, mientras se seguirá abatiendo las importaciones netas de gasolinas, gas licuado, propano, naftas, diésel, isobutano y combustóleo por un cuantioso valor económico mensual superior a 1 mil 764.83 millones de dólares y equivalen a una reducción de dos dígitos -63.95 por ciento.
El crecimiento de medio punto real de crecimiento económico representa 15 mil 411.0 millones de pesos y equivale al 0.06 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) al incrementarse los ingresos públicos tributarios para lograr una mayor recaudación federal de los siguientes: Impuesto Sobre la Renta (ISR), Impuesto Especial sobre Producción y Servicios (IEPS), Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA), Impuesto al Comercio Exterior (ICE) y otros.
Los valores adicionales de un dólar en el precio del petróleo representan 13 mil 217.6 millones de pesos y equivale al 0.05 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) proveniente del incremento de los ingresos por exportaciones de petróleo más el aumento de los gastos por importación de hidrocarburos por parte de la empresa productiva del estado de Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX);
La apreciación de 10 centavos en el tipo de cambio promedio representa una disminución de -3,518.9 millones de pesos y equivale a -0.01 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) producto de la apreciación del peso frente al dólar que reducirán los ingresos petroleros debido a que una proporción elevada de los mismos está asociada a las exportaciones de crudo netas de importaciones de hidrocarburos, lo cual contribuye en reducción del costo por el servicio de la deuda denominada en moneda extranjera por 437.6 millones de pesos en los ingresos petroleros.
El incrementar 50 mil barriles diarios de extracción de petróleo crudo representan aumentos de los ingresos por 15 mil 120.3 millones de pesos que equivalen al 0.08 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de una mayor plataforma de producción de petróleo que incrementa los ingresos petroleros debido a la mayor venta de petróleo que será derivado del reciente descubrimiento del pozo terrestre Dzimpona-1EXP en Tabasco.
La reducción de 100 puntos base en la tasa de interés representan un incremento del gasto no programable del Sector Público de 20 mil 594.0 millones de pesos en el costo financiero y equivale al 0.08 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) al disminuir el pago de intereses de la deuda a tasa variable y los costos de refinanciamiento de la deuda que está por vencer.
El análisis de sensibilidad económica sobre el impacto positivo en las estimaciones de los ingresos, gastos, inversión, deuda, precios, empleos, tasas de interés y tipo de cambio, cuyas prospectivas serán confrontadas con los resultados cuantitativos y cualitativos que serán publicados en las Investigaciones Especiales con los valores económicos reales de los cierres del 31 de marzo al 31 de diciembre del ejercicio fiscal 2021.
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